S&P 500
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The gist
S&P 500 futures rebounded after a 4-session decline, as oil topped $100.
The index's next move hinges on AI earnings versus rate-hike odds at 62.2%.
Background
The S&P 500 has been whipsawed by two forces: an AI investment boom that has powered strong earnings, and a Middle East conflict that pushed oil above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike this month. Tech earnings grew 35% year-over-year in the second quarter, and the index's earnings growth rate is estimated around 28.5% for the third quarter, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8508%, its highest since 2023, pressuring equity valuations.
How it unfolded
- Sep 8, 2026S&P 500 falls as AI worries hit software makers. S&P Dow Jones Indices also announced Poland's reclassification as a developed economy, with index reconstitution set for September 2027.
- Sep 9, 2026Barclays raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,950 from 7,800, citing a standout earnings season led by tech. Nike's investor relations team told executives the company will remain in the S&P 500 ahead of its removal from the S&P 100.
- Sep 10, 2026Futures tracking the Dow and S&P 500 attempted a recovery after a three-day slide; S&P 500 E-minis were up 9.75 points, or 0.13%, at 5:09 a.m. ET. Oil pushed above $100 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8508%, its highest since 2023.
- Sep 11, 2026S&P 500 futures rebounded following a 4-session decline. FactSet published analysis on whether more S&P 500 companies are citing inflation on Q2 earnings calls.
Who’s saying what
- Bulls
- James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, said he sees a path for the S&P 500 to potentially rise to 10,000 by 2027, a 30% surge, arguing that if earnings grow faster than consensus expects, static valuation measures will understate the market's potential.
- Analysts
- Venu Krishna, Barclays strategist, raised FY26/FY27 EPS estimates to $365/$414 and year-end S&P 500 targets to 7,950/8,800, citing a standout earnings season led by tech, with healthcare and energy also strong while real estate and utilities lagged.
- Caution
- Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, said additional rate hikes could create periods of volatility, but history suggests strong economic fundamentals can help offset the headwinds from higher rates as long as growth remains intact and recession risks stay contained.
- Analysts
- ING strategists wrote that markets may be telegraphing to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that it will be tough for him to have meaningful control over long-end rates, while Kyle Rodda of Capital.com said a sustained drop in long-end yields can only be achieved by genuine shifts in macroeconomic policy.
Still unverified
James Thorne said 10,000 is not his prediction for the index, though a rise to that level 'is not fantasy either.' He outlined risks including higher bond yields, tariff headwinds, geopolitical shocks, moderating growth as the AI trade enters its 'second act,' and the possibility investors write off the investment boom as late-cycle excess.