2026 El Nino winter impact
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño for 2026-27 winter, with 69% chance of record strength. The super El Niño could bring wetter, milder conditions and coastal flooding risks.
Background
El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. NOAA declared El Niño in June 2026, and it is expected to intensify into a 'super' El Niño, possibly the strongest of the century. This could significantly influence winter weather across the US, with wetter conditions in the South and West, and warmer temperatures in the North.
How it unfolded
- Jun 2026NOAA officially declares El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
- Aug 8, 2026The Guardian reports climate scientists warn of a 'super' El Niño bringing wet winter and flooding to western US.
- Aug 12, 2026Democrat and Chronicle reports NOAA seasonal forecasts indicate El Niño could shape New York's fall and winter weather.
- Aug 13, 2026ABC News reports NOAA is highly confident of a very strong El Niño, with 99.9% chance 2026 ranks among five warmest years.
- Aug 13, 2026LA Times reports 95% chance of 'super' El Niño, with potential highest sea levels ever recorded in California.
- Aug 14, 2026ABC7 reports Bay Area communities step up flood preparations as forecasters warn of historic El Niño winter.
- Aug 15, 2026USA Today reports El Niño could interact with polar vortex, leading to uncertain winter impacts.
Who’s saying what
- NOAA
- NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño with high confidence, potentially among the strongest in modern record.
- Climate Scientists
- Scientists warn of increased flooding and coastal impacts, with Scripps' Mark Merrifield noting greater wave impact on shorelines.
- Local Officials
- Bay Area officials are preparing for potential flooding, with Marin County conducting flood fight training.
- Caution
- Some experts caution that exact impacts vary depending on jet stream and other climate patterns, with 'boom-or-bust' snow potential.
Still unverified
The claim that this El Niño could be the strongest of the century is based on current forecasts and may change. The exact winter impacts remain uncertain.