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2026 El Nino winter impact
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一句话看懂
NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño for 2026-27 winter, with 69% chance of record strength. The super El Niño could bring wetter, milder conditions and coastal flooding risks.
背景
El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. NOAA declared El Niño in June 2026, and it is expected to intensify into a 'super' El Niño, possibly the strongest of the century. This could significantly influence winter weather across the US, with wetter conditions in the South and West, and warmer temperatures in the North.
来龙去脉
- Jun 2026NOAA officially declares El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
- Aug 8, 2026The Guardian reports climate scientists warn of a 'super' El Niño bringing wet winter and flooding to western US.
- Aug 12, 2026Democrat and Chronicle reports NOAA seasonal forecasts indicate El Niño could shape New York's fall and winter weather.
- Aug 13, 2026ABC News reports NOAA is highly confident of a very strong El Niño, with 99.9% chance 2026 ranks among five warmest years.
- Aug 13, 2026LA Times reports 95% chance of 'super' El Niño, with potential highest sea levels ever recorded in California.
- Aug 14, 2026ABC7 reports Bay Area communities step up flood preparations as forecasters warn of historic El Niño winter.
- Aug 15, 2026USA Today reports El Niño could interact with polar vortex, leading to uncertain winter impacts.
各方怎么说
- NOAA
- NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño with high confidence, potentially among the strongest in modern record.
- Climate Scientists
- Scientists warn of increased flooding and coastal impacts, with Scripps' Mark Merrifield noting greater wave impact on shorelines.
- Local Officials
- Bay Area officials are preparing for potential flooding, with Marin County conducting flood fight training.
- Caution
- Some experts caution that exact impacts vary depending on jet stream and other climate patterns, with 'boom-or-bust' snow potential.
待核实
The claim that this El Niño could be the strongest of the century is based on current forecasts and may change. The exact winter impacts remain uncertain.