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Super El Niño forecast record
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The gist
NOAA forecasts a 69% chance the 2026-27 El Niño becomes the strongest on record.
This could trigger record coastal flooding and disrupt global weather patterns.
Background
El Niño is a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that affects weather worldwide. The current event has intensified rapidly, with forecasts now indicating it may surpass all previous records since 1950. This has prompted preparations in California for potential flooding and adjustments to hurricane season forecasts.
How it unfolded
- Aug 12, 2026Severe-weather.eu reports the Super El Niño is growing, with forecasts reaching record territory for fall-winter 2026-27.
- Aug 13, 2026NOAA releases a forecast giving a 69% chance the event becomes the strongest on record, with a 93% chance of a super El Niño by October.
- Aug 13, 2026California officials stage flood-response supplies, including 4.3 million sandbags, as the Bay Area faces potential record coastal flooding.
- Aug 13, 2026Colorado State University lowers its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, citing the strong El Niño's suppressing effect.
Who’s saying what
- NOAA
- There is a 69% chance this El Niño will be the strongest on record, but impacts may not be markedly worse everywhere.
- California officials
- We are preparing for worst-case flooding scenarios, staging supplies and sandbags across the state.
- Climate scientists
- This El Niño, combined with global warming, could set a new global temperature record this year.
- CSU forecasters
- The strong El Niño is a key reason we have lowered our Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
Still unverified
Some models suggest this event could rival the 1877 El Niño, but data from that era is limited and uncertain.