El Nino forecast update
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The gist
NOAA forecast says El Niño has 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter. A historic event could disrupt global weather patterns and affect millions.
Background
El Niño is a natural climate pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean that influences weather globally. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported on Aug 13, 2026 that the current El Niño has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a 'very strong' event during the fall and winter of 2026-27, with a 69% chance of being the strongest on record since 1950. Forecasters have been increasingly confident since January, and the event is already the second strongest on record for this time of year, behind 1997.
How it unfolded
- Jan 2026Forecasts began showing increasing confidence in the intensity of the El Niño event.
- Aug 10, 2026KTVU reported that forecast models suggested the pending El Niño could approach the higher extreme of the very strong range.
- Aug 12, 2026Severe Weather Europe noted the El Niño was growing at an exceptional rate, with forecasts showing continued expansion of +5 degree anomalies.
- Aug 13, 2026NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released an update stating a 90% chance of a very strong event, and a 69% chance of it being the strongest on record. The current event ranks as the second strongest on record for this time of year.
- Aug 14, 2026USA Today and ABC7 reported on the forecast, with California communities beginning flood preparations.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- NOAA forecasters caution that even a record-strong El Niño does not guarantee impacts will be markedly worse or occur in most typically affected locations.
- Expert
- UC climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain described the latest forecast data as 'extraordinary' and noted the event is already firmly established.
- Public
- Bay Area communities are stepping up flood preparations in anticipation of a potentially historic winter rainy season.
Still unverified
Some projections suggest the event could get warmer than 3 degrees Celsius, but this is not yet confirmed by official measurements.