El Niño winter weather forecast for US
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The gist
NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a super El Niño for winter 2026-2027.
The super El Niño likely brings wetter south and warmer north, affecting ski seasons.
Background
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which influences global weather patterns. The current El Niño began earlier in summer 2026 and has strengthened, with NOAA issuing an advisory on August 13, 2026, indicating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-2027. This has led to updated seasonal forecasts from various sources, including NOAA, OpenSnow, and the Farmers' Almanac, predicting significant impacts on temperature and precipitation across the United States.
How it unfolded
- Aug 13, 2026NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory, reporting strengthening El Niño with >90% chance of very strong event.
- Aug 17, 2026OpenSnow released winter forecast favoring above-normal snowfall across Southwest U.S., including California, Utah, and Colorado.
- Aug 19, 2026Farmers' Almanac published Canada winter outlook, noting active storm track and shifting precipitation types.
- Aug 20, 2026NOAA released updated winter outlooks showing above-normal precipitation for coastal California and Southeast, below-normal for northern Rockies and Great Lakes.
- Aug 21, 2026New York Post reported on California winter forecast with unusually wet conditions and above-average snowfall expected.
Who’s saying what
- NOAA
- NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a super El Niño, with potential for historic strength, but cautions that local impacts vary.
- OpenSnow
- OpenSnow favors above-normal snowfall in the Southwest U.S., including California and Utah, benefiting ski resorts.
- Farmers' Almanac
- Farmers' Almanac warns of sharp contrasts and difficult rain-snow-ice boundaries, with winter weather that can change quickly.
- Michigan forecast
- Michigan outlook suggests warmer-than-normal winter with near-normal precipitation, as Arctic air stays bottled up in Canada.
Still unverified
Some sources, like the Old Farmer's Almanac, provide predictions that are not based on scientific models and may be less reliable.