VIX falls about 20% after U.S. midterm elections
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The gist
The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, fell about 20% to 16.61 after the U.S. midterm elections.
The drop signals investors pricing calmer markets, though traders had called the gauge unreactive.
Background
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is Wall Street's widely followed fear gauge, estimating expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days from index option prices. It began 2026 around 14.5 and surged above 31 in late March as conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran escalated, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. It rose above 22 in mid-October amid a sell-off in AI-linked stocks, and options traders had recently described it as unreactive.
How it unfolded
- Mar 6, 2026The VIX closed at 29.5, its 265th close above 29 in 15 years.
- Oct 17, 2026The VIX rose above 22 for the first time in four months amid a sell-off in AI-linked stocks.
- Nov 2, 2026CNBC reported the VIX was deemed "unreactive" by options traders.
- Nov 3, 2026The VIX closed at 20.830, down 1.51%, with a high of 21.910 and a low of 20.290.
- Nov 4, 2026The VIX fell over 11%, slipping below 19, after the U.S. midterm elections.
- Nov 5, 2026The VIX was at 16.85 as of 10:54 UTC, down 19.10%, with a day low of 16.80.
Key terms
- VIX
- A volatility index based on S&P 500 options, often called the fear gauge.
- U.S. midterm elections
- US general elections held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term, when all House seats and about a third of Senate seats are contested.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba said the rapid VIX rise combined with high options volumes may reflect monetization of October positions and a shift toward hedging against a broader market decline.
- Caution
- CNBC reported that options traders deemed the VIX "unreactive."