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Kansas Senate race could break GOP streak

Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.

The gist

Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, challenges Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, the longest streak of any state.

Background

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932, the longest streak of any state. Hamilton, founder of the largest Methodist denomination in the US, won the Democratic primary with 35% of the vote and has broken fundraising records. National Democrats see a potential pickup as Trump's approval ratings slump and the Iran war affects prices.

How it unfolded

  1. 1932George McGill, a Democrat, wins a full Senate term in Kansas; no Democrat has won since.
  2. 1974Republican Bob Dole nearly loses his re-election bid, but Republicans have won every Senate race since.
  3. recentlyAdam Hamilton wins the Democratic primary with 35% of the vote and breaks a quarterly fundraising record.
  4. recentlyForecasters say the race has grown more competitive, though Marshall is still favored.

Who’s saying what

Democrat
Hamilton says tariffs, healthcare, immigration, and the Iran war are hurting Kansans, making Marshall vulnerable.
Analysts
Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball see the race as more competitive but still favor Marshall.
Republican
Marshall, an ally of Trump, has not commented; his campaign did not respond to requests.
Expert
Bob Beatty, a political scientist, says Hamilton's communication skills from preaching could make for a very competitive race.

Still unverified

Schumer's prediction that a 'blue wave' could carry Hamilton to victory is an opinion, not a fact.

Sources

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