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Republicans in bind with Trump as midterms near
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Trump's low approval and trade war with Canada put Republicans in a bind as midterms near. His pull with the base clashes with swing-voter liability.
Background
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, President Trump's approval rating is underwater, dragged down by rising prices and an unpopular war. Republicans in competitive races face a dilemma: they need Trump's support to energize the base, but his unpopularity with swing voters makes him a liability. Trump has also ignited a trade war with Canada and eased tariffs on imported beef, moves that many Republicans fear will hurt their chances.
How it unfolded
- Aug 22, 2026Ynetnews reports Trump's approval falls to 33% as independents, Hispanics, and moderate Republicans drift away.
- Aug 24, 2026The Daily Beast reports Republicans turning on Trump's plans, including a trade war with Canada and importing tariff-free meat.
- Aug 26, 2026CNN reports Republicans furious over Trump's revived tariff drama; a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democrats lead by 8 points on cost-of-living issues.
- Aug 27, 2026CNN reports Trump has already found someone to blame if Republicans lose the midterms: his fellow Republicans. The New York Times publishes analysis of the bind Republicans face.
Who’s saying what
- Republican strategist
- Brendan Steinhauser says it's a difficult one, predicting candidates will seek separation from Trump subtly, district by district.
- GOP strategist
- Doug Heye says no Republican on the ballot will tell you the trade war is a good idea, as things are too expensive.
- Republican lawmaker
- Rep. Ashley Hinson says 'We need to focus on affordability, but I think this isn't the way to do that' regarding Trump's meat import plan.
- Trump
- Trump suggests if Republicans lose big in November, they will have themselves to blame, not him.