True unemployment rate report
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The gist
LISEP's True Rate of Unemployment hit 24.9% in July 2026, up from 24.7% in June. The broader gauge reveals labor market weakness hidden by the official 4.1% rate.
Background
The True Rate of Unemployment (TRU) is a metric by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) that measures functional unemployment, including those who are jobless, working part-time involuntarily, or earning below a living wage. It contrasts with the official unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which only counts those actively seeking work. The TRU has been rising for four consecutive months, suggesting a weakening labor market despite low official rates.
How it unfolded
- Jun 2026LISEP reported the True Rate of Unemployment at 24.7%, while the headline rate was 4.2%.
- Jul 2026The True Rate rose to 24.9%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, while the official rate fell to 4.1%.
- Aug 31, 2026TradingView News highlighted the divergence, quoting LISEP Chairman Gene Ludwig: 'Functional unemployment is moving higher while workforce participation is moving lower.'
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- The rising True Rate suggests the labor market is losing strength despite low headline unemployment, according to Gene Ludwig.
- Official
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the official unemployment rate at 4.1% in July, down from 4.2% in June.
- Expert
- Robert Reich argues that nearly a quarter of the U.S. workforce cannot find a job paying enough to escape poverty, calling it a major issue for the midterms.
Still unverified
The claim that the Trump administration is trying to hide the true unemployment rate is an opinion from Alternet and not a verified fact.