BoM forecasts strongest El Niño on record
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The gist
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the 2026/2027 El Niño may become the strongest on record.
This could bring extreme weather worldwide, affecting farmers, fire agencies, and global temperatures.
Background
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that influences global weather. The current event has strengthened rapidly, with sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific reaching 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average by mid-August 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and other agencies warn it could become the strongest since records began, with near-certain persistence through February 2027. This has raised concerns about drought, fires, and floods in various regions.
How it unfolded
- early summer 2026El Niño began forming in the Pacific Ocean.
- May-Jul 2026Niño 3.4 index averaged +1.5°C above normal.
- Jul 2026Niño 3.4 index reached +2.0°C above normal.
- late Jul-mid Aug 2026Weekly values ranged from approximately +2.2°C to +2.6°C above average, indicating continued intensification.
- Aug 29, 2026BoM long-range forecast for spring predicts above-average temperatures across most of Australia, with increased fire risks in parts of Victoria, NSW, and WA.
- Aug 31, 2026Reports indicate warming reached approximately 2.2°C by early August, and the event has entered the strong phase.
- Sep 1, 2026WMO forecasts near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, and it is expected to strengthen further.
- recentlyForecasts suggest it may peak in late spring or summer 2026, with potential to become the strongest on record.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- The Bureau of Meteorology expects El Niño to strengthen and persist through spring and summer, increasing risks of hot, dry weather.
- Expert
- Climate scientist Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick warns warmer winters have negative consequences for natural ecosystems.
- Caution
- Some experts caution that the strength of El Niño does not always correspond to the strength of impacts in Australia due to other climate drivers.
Still unverified
Some international agencies forecast sea surface temperatures 3°C above average later in 2026, which would rank as the strongest on record, but this is a projection.