Pacific hurricanes active, Atlantic quiet
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Three Pacific hurricanes Lowell, Karina, Marie spin as Atlantic stays quiet. El Niño drives the split, affecting Hawaii and California forecasts.
Background
An unusually strong El Niño is increasing vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation, while warming Pacific waters fuel tropical activity. As of early September 2026, the Atlantic has had only five named storms and no hurricanes, while the Northeast Pacific has seen 15 named storms and six hurricanes. This pattern aligns with seasonal forecasts issued in spring 2026.
How it unfolded
- Sep 2, 2026Hurricanes Karina and Lowell reach Category 4 strength; Tropical Storm Marie is west of Mexico. Atlantic storm Edouard weakens to a tropical depression, leaving no named storms in the Atlantic.
- Sep 3, 2026Marie strengthens into a hurricane, making three simultaneous hurricanes in the Pacific for the first time since September 2015. Lowell is a major hurricane south of Hawaii, with track uncertainty for potential Hawaii impact.
- Sep 4, 2026NASA Earth Observatory reports the Northeast Pacific has produced 15 named storms and six hurricanes, well above normal, while the Atlantic has had just five named storms and no hurricanes.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- NOAA meteorologist Erica Grow Cei noted, 'There are currently three systems in the Pacific, and zero in the Atlantic.'
- Expert
- Colorado State University forecasters strongly favor below-normal Atlantic activity for the next two weeks, with no tropical cyclone formation expected.
- Caution
- Local Florida meteorologists warn residents not to let their guard down, as September is historically the most active month for Atlantic hurricanes.
Still unverified
Potential impacts on Hawaii and California are uncertain and depend on the exact tracks of Lowell and Marie, which forecasters are monitoring.