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Record El Niño forms
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
A potentially record-breaking El Niño is forming, with NOAA projecting a 69% chance of being strongest.
This could disrupt global weather, affecting hurricanes, droughts, and heatwaves into 2027.
Background
El Niño is a natural climate pattern with warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures that affects weather worldwide. Forecasters predict this event could be the strongest on record, surpassing the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events. It is already influencing cyclone activity, with multiple hurricanes in the Pacific and a quiet Atlantic season.
How it unfolded
- Aug 13, 2026NOAA projected a 90% chance of El Niño reaching 'very strong' status and a 69% chance of being a historic event exceeding previous records.
- Sep 1, 2026Meteorologists describe the El Niño as a 'Super El Niño,' with experts warning of extreme weather patterns persisting into 2027.
- Sep 4, 2026Satellite images show four active tropical cyclones in the Pacific, from near Japan to Hawaii, extremely unusual for this time.
Who’s saying what
- NOAA
- NOAA projects a 69% chance this El Niño becomes the strongest on record.
- Expert
- Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli says the El Niño is 'supersized' and will likely exacerbate climate change effects.
- Caution
- Some experts note that a record-breaking El Niño does not necessarily trigger catastrophic events everywhere, as past strong events had varied regional impacts.
Still unverified
Projections of peak intensity (3-4°C) are based on models and could change.