New York millionaire tax exodus claim
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
New IRS data shows high-tax states like New York hold the most millionaires per capita.
The claim that taxing the rich drives them out is disputed as New York.
Background
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising income taxes on residents earning over $1 million (about 1% of the population) and increasing corporate taxes on roughly 1,000 of the city's 250,000 businesses. Similar revenue proposals are being considered in states facing an affordability crisis and federal cuts to healthcare and food assistance. Opponents argue the wealthy will leave for lower-tax states, while newly released IRS data on 2023 filings is being cited to argue that millionaire tax flight is rare.
How it unfolded
- Oct 30, 2025Empire Center for Public Policy data cited on the scope of Mamdani's corporate tax plan, covering about 1,000 of 250,000 city businesses.
- Feb 22, 2026A business figure claims Mamdani's corporate tax push could cause an exodus to New Jersey, per New York Post coverage.
- May 8, 2026New York Post reports Mamdani's tax plans could cost NYC $12 billion and trigger a 'death spiral.'
- Jul 13, 2026New York Post publishes pieces claiming a dramatic millionaire exodus and nearly $11 billion in lost tax revenue.
- Sep 4, 2026FAIR critiques the New York Post's coverage as fabricated horror stories about wealthy residents fleeing.
- Sep 8, 2026Yonkers Times reports new IRS data confirms the millionaire exodus to low-tax states is a myth, noting New York saw a slight increase in millionaire concentration in 2023.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- IRS data on 2023 filings shows states with the most progressive tax systems—including New York—also have the highest concentration of millionaires, corroborating that millionaire tax flight is rare.
- Caution
- New York Post coverage and business figures argue that taxing high earners and corporations will drive a mass exodus, costing billions in revenue and jobs.
- Party
- FAIR argues the New York Post manufactured horror stories about wealthy residents fleeing Mamdani's tax plans.
Still unverified
The specific $12 billion and $11 billion loss figures and 'death spiral' projections cited by the New York Post are attributed to studies and business figures but not independently confirmed in the material; FAIR disputes their basis.