2027 Social Security COLA projection released
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The gist
AARP projects the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%, the biggest raise since 2023.
The official figure lands in October, and rising Medicare costs may eat into it.
Background
Social Security's annual cost-of-living adjustment is calculated from the average inflation rate in July, August and September, measured by the CPI-W, compared with the same period a year earlier. August inflation data released in September pushed estimates up: AARP now forecasts 3.6%, while the Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson project 3.5%. The official COLA will be announced by the Social Security Administration in October, after the final September inflation data is published.
How it unfolded
- Sep 5, 2026The Motley Fool notes the COLA announcement is less than six weeks away and that a handful of President Donald Trump's policies are expected to boost consumer prices and the 2027 COLA.
- Sep 6, 2026Cleveland.com reports The Senior Citizens League's latest estimate puts the 2027 COLA at 3.6%, and that the official numbers will be announced by the Social Security Administration on Oct. 14.
- Sep 11, 2026After August CPI data is released, AARP projects a 3.6% COLA — up from its 3.5% August estimate — while the Senior Citizens League lowers its projection to 3.5% and Mary Johnson estimates 3.5%, up from 3.4%.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- AARP forecasts a 3.6% COLA, which it says would raise the average retired worker's benefit by $75 per month, up from its 3.5% estimate in August.
- Analysts
- The Senior Citizens League projects 3.5%, down from its prior 3.6% estimate, while independent analyst Mary Johnson estimates 3.5%, up from 3.4%.
- Caution
- Cleveland.com and AL.com report that inflation coupled with rising Medicare costs will eat away at much of the 2027 increase.
- Support
- TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said it is 'infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums.'
Still unverified
The projections are estimates, not the official figure; the Social Security Administration will announce the actual 2027 COLA in October based on July, August and September inflation data. The Motley Fool's claim that President Donald Trump's policies are boosting inflation and the 2027 COLA is a single-source characterization, and 24/7 Wall St.'s dividend-stock comparison is investment commentary, not a projection of the COLA itself.