El Nino winter weather impacts
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The gist
NOAA gives a 75% chance this El Niño becomes the strongest on record between October and.
Forecasters expect a warmer, wetter winter for parts of the U.S., with flooding and.
Background
El Niño is a recurring warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns worldwide. NOAA says conditions in the Central Pacific have strengthened significantly, and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center puts better than a 90% chance on this event turning very strong into fall and winter 2026-27. Because a stronger El Niño makes its typical impacts more likely, forecasters are watching how it will shape the coming winter across the U.S. and beyond.
How it unfolded
- Aug 13, 2026The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center says there is better than a 90% chance this El Niño turns very strong heading into fall and winter 2026-27.
- Sep 7, 2026Oregon state climatologist Larry O'Neill tells OPB the event is 'shaping up right now to be off the charts,' with the Pacific Northwest facing a warmer, wetter winter and flood and landslide risk.
- Sep 8, 2026CNN reports El Niño is expected to raise California coastal sea levels by 10-to-14 inches above normal, adding to winter storm flooding risk.
- Sep 10, 2026NOAA puts a 75% chance on El Niño reaching historic strength between October and December 2026, and cites it as the main driver of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.
- Sep 11, 2026KCUR reports El Niño typically brings drier, warmer winters to much of the Midwest and Great Plains while making southern states wetter and slightly cooler.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- NOAA says there is a 75% chance this El Niño reaches historic strength between October and December 2026 and warns a record-breaking event could produce atmospheric impacts never seen before.
- Expert
- Oregon state climatologist Larry O'Neill says the event is 'shaping up right now to be off the charts' and that scientists are 'in uncharted territory' about exactly what impacts could come.
- Caution
- KCUR quotes Ford saying any individual winter storm will depend more on where the jet stream sits at the time than on the El Niño signature alone.
Still unverified
Whether 2026 becomes the hottest year on record remains to be seen, and one source says 2027 is far more likely to break the previous record. NOAA has previously warned of a 69% chance this El Niño will be the strongest in 70 years.