El Niño Southern Oscillation winter weather outlook
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on Sep 10, 2026.
The competing almanacs disagree on what that means for Texas.
Background
El Niño is a recurring Pacific ocean-atmosphere pattern that shifts global weather; it and La Niña recur irregularly rather than on a set schedule. NOAA's September 2026 advisory put the odds of a very strong event above 90%, and the previous El Niño ran from 2023 into 2024. The topic is trending now because NOAA's upgrade landed the same week both the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac released winter outlooks that don't agree with each other.
How it unfolded
- Sep 8, 2026The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for a warmer and drier winter for Texas, with a chance for snow in the new year. The Farmers' Almanac calls for a stormy winter for Texas, with elevated flood and severe weather risks and an active storm track from Southern California through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.
- Sep 8, 2026FOX 29 Philadelphia reports the Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast for the Philadelphia area.
- Sep 10, 2026NOAA issues an El Niño Advisory, saying there is now a greater than 90% chance that a very strong El Niño will occur during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, and a 75% chance the event ranks among the strongest on record during October through December.
- Sep 10, 2026NOAA observations show sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 3.0°C above average, with the Niño-1+2 region at 3.4°C above average. Severe Weather Europe reports peak ocean warm anomalies above 7°C (12.6°F) in the eastern tropical Pacific and says the NCEP CFSv2 model forecast exceeds the last three Super El Niño events.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Severe Weather Europe says the building Super El Niño is creating an atmospheric hurricane shield for the United States, with sinking air, record-strong wind shear and lack of moisture keeping the 2026 Atlantic season exceptionally quiet near its peak.
- Caution
- The Old Farmer's Almanac says a powerful El Niño can raise the likelihood of certain patterns, but its strength does not translate directly into the strength of individual winter storms, and its outlook also weighs ocean patterns, high-altitude winds, solar activity, the polar vortex and Indian Ocean conditions.
Still unverified
Severe Weather Europe says that if the NCEP CFSv2 forecast verifies, the 2026/2027 El Niño would be the strongest in over a century, if not further back — a model-based projection, not a confirmed outcome.