CPI report
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The gist
The August US CPI report lands Friday as the Fed's last inflation read before its September.
Economists expect headline inflation to ease to 3.3% while core prices tick up.
Background
The August Consumer Price Index is the final inflation update the Federal Reserve will see before it meets next week, giving it outsize significance for the rate decision. After the August jobs report came in much better than expected and lifted odds of a September rate hike, markets are watching whether price data supports or stalls that move. Economists expect headline inflation to ease slightly to 3.3% year-over-year from 3.4%, while core prices accelerate modestly to 0.22% month-over-month from 0.20% in July. Rising gas prices are a key reason the month-over-month rate likely jumped to a three-month high, and investors will watch for energy pressure spilling into core inflation.
How it unfolded
- Sep 8, 2026Markets brace for two inflation reports this week, with the PPI due Thursday and the August CPI due Friday, both seen as able to move markets and the Fed decision.
- Sep 9, 2026Previews describe the August CPI as the most consequential data point before the Fed's September meeting, with headline expected to ease to 3.3% and core to 0.22% month-over-month.
- Sep 11, 2026The August CPI report is scheduled for release, the last inflation reading before the Fed's September 16 meeting.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Juneau expects the data to be firm enough for the FOMC to follow through with a rate hike in September.
- Caution
- Mohamed El-Erian said he would argue for no hike if he were on the FOMC.
- Official
- Chair Warsh said in August the Fed is 'just not seeing enough cooling across the broader categories' to be confident of returning to 2%.
Still unverified
The exact August CPI figures are not yet released; the 3.3% headline and 0.22% core numbers are economist forecasts. Whether the Fed will hike in September remains an open question, with analysts and commentators publicly disagreeing.