Oil price passes $100 as Middle East conflict escalates
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Brent crude closed at $109.86 a barrel on Oct 16, its highest in nearly five months.
Higher fuel costs are feeding through to drivers, with diesel futures at seasonal highs.
Background
Oil prices had fallen sharply earlier this summer, with WTI (West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. crude benchmark) below $70 in late June and early July as markets reacted to a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Prices have since climbed back as the conflict escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway bordered by Iran through which about 20% of the world's oil and refined products normally flows — remains a key pressure point. Brent last traded near these levels nearly five months ago, when Middle East conflicts disrupted global shipments before a fragile, short-lived agreement briefly reopened the strait.
How it unfolded
- Feb 27, 2026Crude was at $67 per barrel, the day before the conflict with Iran began.
- Feb 28, 2026The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran; the national average for regular gas was $2.98 that day.
- Jun 14, 2026The national average for regular gas hit a record high of $5.016.
- late June–early July 2026WTI dipped below $70 for several days, the lowest since the conflict began, as markets reacted to the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Oct 16, 2026Brent crude futures rose 3.7% to close at $109.86 per barrel after briefly touching $110; WTI gained 3.5% to settle at $101.41, with oil up for a second consecutive week.
- Oct 20, 2026WTI was back above $100 to start the week; the Oregon average for regular gas fell seven cents to $4.93 a gallon and the national average lost six cents to $4.28.
- Oct 22, 2026Brent traded at $111.10 and WTI at $98.98, both up around 2%, after Houthis struck an oil field in Saudi Arabia and another international airport; the U.S. ordered non-emergency personnel in Saudi Arabia to leave.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group said the oil market has had to reprice risk after a brief respite, especially as the weekend approaches.
- Caution
- Marie Dodds of AAA Oregon/Idaho said drivers are getting some relief at the pump, but rising crude prices mean the declining pump prices may not last long.
- Official
- Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, wrote in a Financial Times op-ed that Iran is ready to defend itself and the chances of a peace deal are slim, saying Iran has no trust in the U.S. administration's desire for peace.
- Analysts
- ING commodity analysts noted Kuwait's daily oil production topped 2 million barrels, but fuel production flows remain significantly lower than before the war.
Still unverified
Iranian media reported explosions in southern Iran without specifying their nature or origin; attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure were claimed to be by Iran-backed Houthi militants.