GM stock up 46% in a year as analysts see more upside
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The gist
General Motors stock closed at $83.96 on Oct 16, up 46.4% over the past year.
Analysts' $104.17 mean target implies 24% upside, but margins have thinned sharply.
Background
General Motors is the top-selling automaker in the United States. Its stock run began on Oct 21, 2025, after a third-quarter earnings beat and a raised outlook, and kept climbing through year-end. GM has now surpassed earnings estimates in each of the past 16 quarters, and the next quarterly report, expected around Oct 20, 2026, is framed as the test of its operating margin.
How it unfolded
- May 5, 2025On a Q1 conference call, GM management revised full-year adjusted profit guidance to account for tariffs, estimating current tariff exposure at $4 billion to $5 billion.
- Jul 22, 2025Results for April to June 2025 showed the operating margin fell to 4.5% from 8.1% in the same quarter of 2024.
- Oct 21, 2025GM beat third-quarter estimates and raised its full-year outlook; the stock jumped nearly 15% from a $58.00 close on October 20, with adjusted EPS of $2.80 vs. $2.31 expected.
- Dec 31, 2025GM stock closed December at $81.32, a 40.2% gain on the October 20 close in about ten weeks.
- Jan 27, 2026A fourth-quarter beat, a 20% dividend increase and a new $6 billion share-repurchase authorization sent the stock up 8.75% that day; adjusted EPS was $2.51 vs. a $2.20 estimate.
- Mar 31, 2026GM closed March at $74.50, 8.4% below its year-end close.
- Apr 28, 2026Adjusted EPS of $3.70 topped the $2.62 estimate; GM lifted its 2026 guide modestly, citing the Iran conflict's effect on oil and commodity costs, to $11.50 to $13.50 adjusted EPS.
- Jul 21, 2026GM raised its 2026 outlook a second time; adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat the $3.20 LSEG consensus.
- Jul 27, 2026Jefferies upgraded GM to Buy from Hold, raising its target to $99.00 from $90.00.
- Jul 28, 2026Tigress Financial boosted its target to $130.00 from $92.00 with a Strong-Buy rating.
- Sep 30, 2026The stock slid to $77.00; September's drop had no single trigger, spanning a warning that the pickup changeover would cost about 35,000 trucks in the fourth quarter, a Federal Reserve rate hike, and fears Chinese automakers could enter the US market.
- Oct 12, 2026Royal Bank of Canada raised its target to $102.00 from $100.00 with an Outperform rating.
- Oct 14, 2026GM stock had returned 50.6% in the year to this date, outpacing the 17.3% gain for the S&P 500.
- Oct 16, 2026GM stock closed at $83.96, up 46.4% over the past year.
- Oct 20, 2026Third-quarter 2026 results are expected; Zacks consensus is EPS of $3.55 and revenues of $48.21 billion.
Who’s saying what
- Bulls
- TIKR notes 13 analysts rate GM a buy and 7 an outperform, with a $104.17 mean target 24.1% above the latest close, while MarketBeat puts the consensus at Moderate Buy with a $101.22 target.
- Caution
- Trefis notes GM returned 50.6% in the year to October 14 even as the underlying business failed to grow, with the operating margin at roughly 1.0% over the twelve months to June 2026 versus 5.7% a year earlier.
- Hold
- Zacks rates GM a Hold with a Zacks Rank #3, noting US third-quarter deliveries of 670,974 vehicles, down 5.5% year over year, though GM remained the top-selling automaker in the country.
Still unverified
September's drop in GM stock had no single trigger; cited factors included a warning that the pickup changeover would cost about 35,000 trucks in the fourth quarter, a Federal Reserve rate hike, and fears Chinese automakers could enter the US market.