El Niño impact on India monsoon rains
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
WMO warns a 'very strong' El Niño may last till Feb 2027, threatening India's monsoon. India faces weaker rains, warmer winter, and heightened heatwave risk.
Background
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warming of Pacific Ocean waters, which disrupts weather patterns globally. For India, it typically weakens the summer monsoon, leading to reduced rainfall and affecting agriculture. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a 'very strong' El Niño event that could last until February 2027, raising concerns about its impact on India's monsoon and winter temperatures.
How it unfolded
- Sep 3, 2026WMO warns of a 'very strong' El Niño that could last until February 2027, with subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8°C above average in some areas.
- Sep 3, 2026Reports indicate India's monsoon rainfall is more than 10% below normal, with Kerala experiencing about a fifth less rain than normal, yet intense downpours caused flash floods and landslides killing 26 people.
- Sep 4, 2026Experts say a strong El Niño could alter rainfall distribution, raise temperatures, and increase the possibility of a warmer-than-normal winter in India.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo says El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.
- Expert
- Mahesh Palawat of Skymet notes that El Niño alone does not determine India's weather; other factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole and local sea temperatures will shape the impact.
- Expert
- B.N. Goswami of Guwahati University says there is no strong Indian Ocean dipole and the whole Indian Ocean has warmer than normal temperatures, indicating moisture availability.
Still unverified
The exact intensity and duration of the current El Niño are still uncertain, with forecasts varying. The potential for a warmer winter in India is based on expert opinion, not yet an official forecast.