Polar vortex weakens early, possibly earliest disruption on record
The gist
Forecasters say the polar vortex is weakening and may reverse winds, the earliest disruption since 1958 records.
Where cold air lands, and whether El Niño offsets it, is still unknown.
How it unfolded
- Oct 22, 2026Forecasts indicate an unusually early polar vortex disruption, with all major models agreeing the vortex will weaken toward early November and drop below the historical low for this time of year.
- Nov 2, 2026Seattle-area meteorologist Scott Sistek publishes that the Pacific Northwest should not worry about the developing SSW/polar vortex event, calling the terms media buzzwords.
- Nov 4, 2026Forecasts show the polar vortex splitting into two cores, with stratospheric temperatures over 27°C (49°F) above normal and a wind reversal expected Friday. FOX Forecast Center says models indicate polar winds could reverse as soon as Sunday, which would be the earliest major polar vortex disruption on record.
Key terms
- polar vortex
- A large region of cold, rotating air encircling Earth's polar regions, in the stratosphere and troposphere.
- Sudden Stratospheric Warming
- A phenomenon where polar stratospheric temperatures rise sharply within a few days, often linked to polar vortex disruption.
- El Niño
- The cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, marked by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
Source: Wikipedia