Karl Rove news
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The gist
Karl Rove predicted Republicans will lose the U.S. House in November's midterms.
Trump then blamed Rove if Texas's GOP Senate nominee loses.
Background
Rove, a former senior adviser to George W. Bush and now a Fox News contributor, has been publicly forecasting Republican losses ahead of the 2026 midterms. He spoke at a Bismarck, North Dakota event with Gov. Kelly Armstrong, then analyzed the races on Fox. Days later, President Trump named Rove and Sen. John Cornyn as figures to blame if Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton loses to Democrat James Talarico.
How it unfolded
- Oct 11, 2026North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong outlined spending cuts, education priorities and concerns about Iran following an event with Karl Rove.
- Oct 12, 2026Rove predicted Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House in November's midterms, saying they could lose as many as 30 seats but not 60, and praised the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora after the Bismarck event.
- Oct 12, 2026A letter to the editor said Rove announced earlier that week he will vote Democrat, quoting him: "My party is infiltrated" with conspiracy nuts.
- Oct 14, 2026Rove, a Fox News contributor, broke down the Fox News Power Rankings 20 days before the midterms, detailing Republicans' path to secure the House and Senate and warning of historical headwinds in the House, outlining Michigan as the critical battleground.
- Oct 15, 2026President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Sen. John Cornyn and Karl Rove should be blamed if GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton loses to Democrat James Talarico in Texas.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Rove said Republicans will lose the House, citing that they have gained seats in only three modern midterm elections, and that the question is by how much.
- Official
- Trump said Cornyn and Rove are doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton to win, and that if Paxton loses it will be because of weak and ineffective political hacks like them.
- Caution
- Rove cautioned that polling could be overstating Democratic support, citing research examining more than 3,300 polls across four election cycles that found Democratic support was overstated 73% of the time.
Still unverified
A letter to the editor said Rove announced earlier that week he will vote Democrat, quoting him: "My party is infiltrated" with conspiracy nuts. Cornyn's office and Rove did not immediately respond to CNBC's requests for comment on Trump's post.