Super El Niño breaks temperature record
已归档 —— 这条已轮出今日牌堆，完整内容在此保留。
一句话看懂
A 'super' El Niño has pushed Pacific sea-surface temperatures to a record 3.05C anomaly.
The event could reshape global weather and lift temperatures into 2027.
背景
El Niño is a naturally occurring Pacific climate pattern that reshapes weather worldwide and temporarily boosts global temperatures. Its strength is tracked by the Niño 3.4 anomaly — how much warmer central Pacific sea-surface temperatures are than average — with events classed 'very strong' above 2.0C. The current event was declared in June 2026 and has developed faster than any previous event on record, with the anomaly now statistically tying or exceeding the 2015 record.
来龙去脉
- Jun 2026El Niño declared and underway, expected to last until next year.
- Sep 14, 2026Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly reaches +2.0°C, the super El Niño threshold.
- Sep 16, 2026Scientists confirm a 'super' El Niño is in progress; Niño 1+2 anomaly near South America climbs to +3.7°C and Niño 3.4 surface water reaches 29.6°C.
- Sep 18, 2026Report says a record-breaking few months of weather is driven by the super El Niño.
- Sep 19, 2026Daily Niño 3.4 anomaly stands at 3.07C, a statistical tie with the previous record of 3.08C.
- Sep 20, 2026Super El Niño crosses the +2.0°C anomaly threshold, only the third time in recorded history.
- Sep 21, 2026Analysis says the super El Niño reaches a 'remarkable' all-time record; the temperature rise at its heart reaches 3.05C, higher than the 3.02C set in late 2015.
各方怎么说
- Analysts
- Carbon Brief's Dr Zeke Hausfather says the event has developed faster than any previous on record, with the 3.07C anomaly a statistical tie with the 2015 record.
- Official
- NOAA's September outlook puts the odds at 75 percent that from October through December this El Niño will be hotter and stronger than any since 1950.
- Expert
- Harvard's Zhiming Kuang says that after removing the trend, the current anomalies indicate 'a strong event'.
- Caution
- The Harvard Salata Institute notes a record-breaking event would not by itself establish that El Niños are getting stronger over time; scientists must distinguish an unusually large swing from a lasting change.
待核实
Some scientists, using a different baseline for calculating the anomaly, have already called the new record. Some experts estimate a roughly 70 per cent chance the current event will become the strongest on record since data collection began in 1950.