El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths
The gist
A Chicago report projects over 450,000 extra heat deaths from strong El Niño by February 2027.
That is about 65 times Nepal's 6,800 dead or missing in its recent flood.
How it unfolded
- Sep 23, 2026The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab publishes a report projecting more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths from an unusually strong El Niño over the next six months, running to February 2027.
- Sep 23, 2026The report projects global land temperatures will rise about 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal until mid-2027, and 44 per cent more 'extremely hot' days than the 1996-2025 baseline.
- Sep 23, 2026It projects 239,000 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, and 451,000 additional deaths from June 2026 through the end of February 2027 compared with a typical year.