Northern lights aurora borealis forecast
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The gist
NOAA forecasts minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions from Nov. 6 to Nov. 8, with a chance of G2.
Skywatchers in northern states may see auroras, but cloud cover could block the view.
Background
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the U.S. agency that issues geomagnetic storm and aurora forecasts. A large coronal hole on the sun is sending a stream of high-speed solar wind toward Earth, which is why forecasters expect storm conditions this weekend. The northern lights, or aurora borealis, are waves of light created when the solar wind strikes the atmosphere.
How it unfolded
- Nov 6, 2026NOAA's SWPC forecasts minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions between Nov. 6 and Nov. 8, with a chance of moderate (G2) conditions on Nov. 7 and Nov. 8.
- Nov 6, 2026NOAA predicts a G1 storm on Nov. 6 with a Kp index of 5, and a G0 storm on Nov. 7 with a Kp index of 4.
- Nov 6, 2026The U.K. Met Office forecasts solar wind speeds of 342-404 miles (550-650 km) per second, versus a typical speed of around 249 miles (400 km) per second.
- Nov 6, 2026Fast solar winds are expected to arrive around Nov. 6-7 and could persist through much of the weekend.
- Nov 6, 2026The SWPC says northern lights could be visible in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula on Friday and Saturday nights.
- Nov 6, 2026Local National Weather Service offices predict clouds overnight Nov. 6 and Nov. 7, and in some areas rain and snow on Friday night, which could disrupt viewing.
Key terms
- geomagnetic storm
- A temporary disturbance of Earth's magnetosphere caused by interactions with plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun.
- coronal hole
- A cooler, darker region of the Sun's corona with open magnetic fields that let solar wind escape quickly.
- Kp index
- A 0–9 integer scale measuring disturbances in Earth's horizontal magnetic field, with 5 or more indicating a storm.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Official
- NOAA's SWPC forecasts minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions Nov. 6-8, with a chance of moderate (G2) conditions on Nov. 7 and Nov. 8.
- Caution
- Space.com reports that aurora forecasts are notoriously tricky and much depends on the strength and orientation of the magnetic field carried by the incoming solar wind, particularly whether it points southward.
- Caution
- Local National Weather Service offices in Michigan say clouds overnight Nov. 6 and Nov. 7, and in some areas rain and snow on Friday night, could limit visibility.
Still unverified
Whether G2 conditions will materialize is unconfirmed; aurora forecasts are described as notoriously tricky and dependent on the strength and orientation of the incoming solar wind's magnetic field. Visibility in Michigan is uncertain because of forecast clouds, rain and snow.