Subtropical Storm Josephine forms off U.S. East Coast as Pacific season sets record
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The gist
Subtropical Storm Josephine formed in the mid-Atlantic with 65 mph winds, 265 miles south of Nantucket.
The Eastern Pacific also set an all-time energy record, signaling a busy global cyclone stretch.
Background
Subtropical Storm Josephine is a storm that formed in the mid-Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast, several hundred miles south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and is being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, the U.S. agency that issues storm advisories. It formed as tropical activity picked up across several ocean basins at once, including the Eastern Pacific, where El Nino conditions are strengthening and can favor cyclone activity. The same stretch saw the first storm of the southern hemisphere season and a forecast for the Bay of Bengal.
How it unfolded
- Oct 3, 2026 –4, 2026A heavy rainfall storm hit Catalonia; an Aemet analysis later said it showed signs compatible with an attempted tropical cyclone formation, a process it said had not been documented in the Mediterranean before.
- Oct 15, 2026India's Southwest monsoon ended with about a 13% rainfall deficit, according to the India Meteorology Department, opening a window for cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.
- Oct 18, 2026Tropical Cyclone Wati developed in the South Pacific, the first storm of the 2026-27 southern hemisphere season.
- Oct 20, 2026NOAA's Global Tropical Hazards Outlook indicated a 60% probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal region the following week.
- Oct 21, 2026Subtropical Storm Josephine formed late Wednesday afternoon in the mid-Atlantic, 265 miles south of Nantucket with 65 mph maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 990 millibars.
- Oct 22, 2026Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico, expected to strengthen to a major hurricane over open waters; the same day the Eastern Pacific set a record for its most energetic season, with ACE surpassing 318.
- Oct 26, 2026Weather scientist Surendranath Pasupalak noted environmental conditions were highly favorable for the Bay of Bengal system to intensify significantly by this date.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- The National Hurricane Center said some strengthening is expected but Josephine should remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday, with further strengthening likely late Thursday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.
- Expert
- Researchers Juan Jesús González-Alemán and Carlos Calvo-Sancho called the Mediterranean case unprecedented, saying warming of the Mediterranean could be opening a new path for cyclone formation not previously considered in the region.
- Caution
- The National Weather Service said minor saltwater flooding at coastal locations in South Florida is possible along the east coast within 1.5 hours of high tide.
Still unverified
The Aemet analysis describes the Catalonia storm as an attempted tropical cyclone formation, a hypothesis; the medicane ultimately did not form. The Bay of Bengal cyclone is a forecast: NOAA gave a 60% probability of formation next week.