Election forecaster Nate Silver raises Democrats' Senate odds to 79%
The gist
Election forecaster Nate Silver put Democrats' Senate chances at 79% and House odds at 95%.
His model's swing toward Democrats is watched as a midterm signal.
How it unfolded
- Oct 3, 2026On Crooked Media's "Lovett or Leave It" podcast, Silver called the U.S. war against Iran the "biggest electoral story" of the midterms and put Democrats at 72.6% for the Senate and 92.8% for the House.
- Oct 9, 2026Silver's model gave Democrats a 74.5% chance of winning both chambers and Republicans a 6.7% chance of keeping both.
- Oct 21, 2026His forecast shifted slightly toward Republicans after he removed a series of fake polls he said had been about 1 point more favorable to Democrats than the consensus.