AMD beats Q3 estimates but stock sits 25% below its 52-week high
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The gist
Chipmaker AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion and guided Q4 to about $17 billion.
The stock is still down 24% in a month despite the beat.
Background
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a Santa Clara, California-based semiconductor company focused on high-performance and AI computing for cloud infrastructure, embedded systems, AI PCs and gaming. It entered its Nov. 3 report as one of the hardest-hit AI chip stocks, down 24% in a month and 25% below its 52-week high, after an OpenAI revenue outlook cut set off a broad AI sell-off and investors cut risk ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Before that slide, AMD had risen about 150% in 2026, ranking among the top 10 best-performing S&P 500 stocks.
How it unfolded
- Oct 6, 2026AMD's 52-week high close was $649.42.
- Oct 11, 2026AMD came under pressure after OpenAI sharply cut its revenue outlook, triggering a broad AI sell-off that hit AI hardware suppliers tied to OpenAI.
- Oct 24, 2026AMD had risen about 150% in 2026, ranking in the top 10 best-performing S&P 500 stocks ahead of its Nov. 3 earnings report.
- Oct 30, 2026AMD closed at $504.80, down 10.88% (-$61.62).
- Nov 2, 2026Shares fell 7.52% to close at $466.84, below $500, amid pre-earnings hedging, AI capex/ROI anxiety and risk reduction ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
- Nov 3, 2026AMD reported Q3 2026 results after the market close; it closed the day at $483.90, down 24% in a month and 25% below its 52-week high.
- Nov 4, 2026AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion vs. $13.08 billion consensus, adjusted EPS of $2.09 vs. $1.97, and Data Center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97% year over year. After rising more than 4% early, the stock closed up only 1.0% at $488.78.
- Nov 5, 2026AMD guided Q4 to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, versus analyst expectations of about $16.2–16.3 billion.
Key terms
- midterm elections
- US general elections held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term, when all House seats and about a third of Senate seats are contested.
- AI capex
- Money a company spends to buy, maintain, or improve its long-term fixed assets.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Bulls
- Melius, Susquehanna and Wells Fargo all carry $650 targets, citing data center growth, strong server and GPU performance, and supply chain execution.
- Caution
- UBS kept a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $700 from $730 on valuation compression, projecting about $19 EPS for calendar 2027 and about $30 for 2028.
- Analysts
- The Trefis Team said the quarter and guide were real beats, but CEO Lisa Su's 2027 growth claim was barely above the roughly 77% revenue growth analysts already expected.
- Expert
- TradingKey's Block Tao flagged technical risk of a further 10% decline toward $420 if guidance disappoints on margins or product timelines, while a beat plus post-election clarity could trigger a relief rally.
Still unverified
TradingKey's projected further 10% drop toward $420 is a technical risk scenario contingent on disappointing guidance, not a reported outcome.