VanEck chip ETF SMH falls below 200-day average in tech selloff
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The gist
VanEck's semiconductor ETF SMH sank 9% on Oct 30, dropping below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2025.
The fund is top-heavy in Nvidia, so AI-spending sentiment swings hit it hard.
Background
SMH is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, a passively managed fund that tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index and holds roughly 25 chip stocks with a 0.35% expense ratio. It is top-heavy: the top ten holdings are over two-thirds of assets, and Nvidia alone is about one-fifth of the portfolio, with Taiwan Semiconductor second at 9.48%. Chip valuations had expanded on optimism about AI-driven data-center demand, and the late-October slide came as investors reassessed the pace of AI capital spending during a wider tech-led selloff.
How it unfolded
- Jun 9, 2025Chip stocks in SMH fell, leaving the ETF more than 10% below a record high set the prior week, while options traders bet on further declines.
- Nov 20, 2025SMH hit a 52-week low of $325.1.
- Jun 22, 2026SMH reached a 52-week high of $668.91.
- Aug 4, 2026SMH was up 50.1% year to date, and REX Shares launched the 3X long SMHU and -3X short SMHD ETNs tied to the fund.
- Sep 26, 2026SMH traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.
- Oct 20, 2026SMH's 10-day moving average crossed bearishly below its 50-day moving average.
- Oct 30, 2026SMH sank 9% in Friday mid-afternoon trading, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2025, as the Nasdaq dropped over 3% on weak Amazon and Intel earnings; its RSI fell to 35.
- Nov 3, 2026SMH was down roughly 19% over 30 days, from about $630 in early October to around $508 in early November.
- Nov 4, 2026SMH traded at $518.52, up 2.01% amid sector strength, with technical indicators showing 18 sell signals versus 2 buys and about 69% returns in 2026.
Key terms
- ETF
- An investment fund that is bought and sold on stock exchanges and holds assets such as stocks, bonds or commodities.
- 200-day moving average
- A moving average is a statistical calculation that averages data points over successive overlapping periods to smooth out short-term fluctuations.
- RSI
- A technical indicator measuring the strength or weakness of a stock or market based on recent closing prices.
Source: Wikipedia
Who’s saying what
- Caution
- Tickeron reads the October 20 moving-average crossover as a sell signal, putting the odds of a continued downtrend at 83%.
- Bulls
- A Seeking Alpha analyst, disclosing a long position in SMH, called the semiconductor selloff 'a gift heading into 2027.'
- Expert
- A Benzinga headline says AI bubble risk is low but SMH faces a bigger threat than QQQ, according to an expert it does not identify.
Still unverified
Benzinga's headline refers to an 'expert' warning that SMH faces a bigger threat than QQQ, but the source does not identify the expert or the threat.