Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton leads Hallie Shoffner by 9 in new poll
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The gist
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton leads Democrat Hallie Shoffner 50%-41% in a new Arkansas poll.
Cotton skipped a televised debate as his campaign's ad spending reshaped the race.
Background
Tom Cotton is a Republican U.S. Senator from Arkansas seeking a third term and chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee. He faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in a state where Republicans hold the governor's office, every other statewide post and a supermajority in both legislative chambers. The race drew attention after an August poll showed Shoffner ahead, followed by heavy advertising; Cotton's campaign has outspent Shoffner by a 65-to-1 margin, including outside super PAC spending.
How it unfolded
- mid-August 2026A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of 1,217 likely voters showed Shoffner leading Cotton 47.4%-44%, with Wadlin at 3%.
- early August 2026An internal poll from the Shoffner campaign showed her trailing Cotton 46-43, within the margin of error.
- Oct 8, 2026 -13, 2026A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll was conducted, sampling 709 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-5%.
- Oct 15, 2026The new poll was released Thursday evening: Cotton 50%, Shoffner 41%, Wadlin 4.5%, undecided 4.5%.
- Oct 15, 2026Cotton hosted U.S. Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling at Nabholz, MARVA, Abilities Unlimited and Walmart across Arkansas.
- Oct 15, 2026Cotton did not attend the Arkansas TV debate in Conway with Shoffner and Wadlin; campaign spokesperson James Arnold said he attended a birthday party for World War II veteran and family friend Jock Davis instead.
- Oct 21, 2026Cotton joined Sen. John Boozman and state and local leaders to open the new L3Harris Arsenal of Freedom solid rocket motor production facility in Camden, Arkansas.
- Nov 3, 2026Election Day, per Robert Coon's analysis that Cotton is in a solid position to win re-election.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Talk Business & Politics editor-in-chief Roby Brock said millions of dollars of ads against Shoffner and for Cotton since August clearly had some impact on the numbers.
- Analysts
- Robert Coon of Impact Management Group said Cotton is in a solid position to win, leading by 9 points with only 5 percent undecided and a 33-point advantage among voters 65 and older.
- Expert
- Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, said Cotton remains at 50 percent and moved significantly while his campaign and outside groups spent millions on advertising.
- Support
- Cotton said the L3Harris facility is a welcome investment proving Arkansas is the defense capital of America, and that he worked with the congressional delegation, Governor Sanders and the U.S. Army to bring the project to the state.
- Caution
- Shoffner said Cotton was absent from the debate because he either thinks he is too good or is too scared, and neither works for Arkansas.
- Party
- Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin called Cotton a coward and a hypocrite, noting Cotton badgered Sen. Mark Pryor about skipping debates twelve years ago, and said the consensus he heard in all 75 counties is that voters want Cotton fired.
Still unverified
Roby Brock cautioned there is still time for candidates to gain or lose support before Election Day and that the race is not to the finish line.