Republican Senator Thom Tillis predicts GOP midterm 'bloodbath' in North Carolina
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
Outgoing North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis says he expects a GOP "bloodbath" in the midterms.
His book and break with Trump shape a Senate race now tilting toward Democrat Roy Cooper.
Background
Thom Tillis is a second-term Republican U.S. Senator from North Carolina, a former state House speaker and former PricewaterhouseCoopers partner who is not running for reelection. He ended his reelection bid after voting against Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," a move that prompted Trump to seek a primary opponent against him. He has since released a book, "How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents," and is speaking out about his party's prospects as the race for his seat plays out between Republican Michael Whatley, the Trump-endorsed former state party and RNC chairman, and Democrat Roy Cooper, the former governor.
How it unfolded
- Jun 2025Tillis voted against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," citing concerns over rural hospitals and people on Medicaid; the bill passed, cutting Medicaid spending by $1 trillion to pay for new tax cuts.
- Oct 15, 2026At a Cary energy conference on the first day of early voting, Tillis said Michael Whatley should focus on affordability rather than criminal justice policy, and said he may found or join a group pushing the far left and far right out of elected office.
- Oct 15, 2026Tillis said "The election's in 19 days" and that he would reach out to "Republicans who aren't crazy" to recover from "almost certain losses this election cycle."
- Oct 16, 2026Tillis and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, co-chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group, led seven senators in a letter to a Defense Department inspector general calling for an investigation into disruption of U.S.-maintained Starshield systems for Ukrainian partners.
- Oct 16, 2026Tillis told reporters in Raleigh that Republicans need to break from the White House to win in North Carolina and that he expects a GOP "bloodbath" in the midterms.
- Oct 18, 2026WRAL reported Tillis consulted state House Speaker Destin Hall and state Senate leader Phil Berger before voting against the bill.
- Oct 20, 2026Politico published an interview with Tillis at the Carolina Family Restaurant near Charlotte.
Who’s saying what
- Tillis
- He says Republicans must resonate with unaffiliated voters and show separation from the president when they legitimately disagree, and that affordability, not crime, is the top issue in the race.
- Party
- Representative Tim Moore said he may have disagreed with the president at times but expresses it differently than Tillis does.
- Analysts
- Survey USA president Ken Alper said independents and moderates are breaking for the Democrat by over 30 points, which he called significant.
Still unverified
The senators' letter cites "reported disruptions to intelligence-sharing and early-warning capabilities" and says they understand at least some relevant services are provided through contractual arrangements administered by the U.S. Space Force. One study, per WRAL, predicted the Medicaid cuts could lead to tens of thousands of layoffs in the healthcare industry.