IBM shares sit 29% below June record ahead of Q3 earnings
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
IBM shares traded around $234, about 29% below their June 2 record high of $329.23.
Software growth is the number to watch in IBM's Oct 21 third-quarter report.
Background
IBM, or International Business Machines Corp., is a NYSE-listed technology company incorporated in New York in 1911 that operates in software, IT services, hardware, hybrid cloud and AI. Its stock hit an all-time closing high of $329.23 on June 2, 2026, then fell sharply after IBM said on July 14 that second-quarter revenue came in below its own expectations, with shares sinking 25% that day. The slide centered on software: growth slowed from 14% year over year in Q4 2025 to 11% in Q1 2026 and 5% in Q2 2026, with acquisitions such as Confluent, bought in March, providing all of the latest 5%. Investors now await the third-quarter report scheduled for October 21.
How it unfolded
- Jun 2, 2026IBM stock closed at an all-time high of $329.23.
- Jun 23, 2026KeyCorp cut IBM to a "sector weight" rating and Wolfe Research lowered it to "peer perform."
- Jul 14, 2026IBM said second-quarter revenue came in below its own expectations; shares sank 25% that day.
- Jul 17, 2026The average price target from 22 analysts fell 7.1% to US$274 from US$295.
- Jul 22, 2026On IBM's analyst call, CFO James Kavanaugh said "tens of large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected."
- Jul 23, 2026Sanford C. Bernstein cut its IBM target price to $230.00 from $280.00 with a "market perform" rating.
- Jul 24, 2026Citigroup lowered its IBM price target to $245.00 from $255.00 with a "buy" rating.
- Oct 8, 2026IBM shares traded at US$220.51, down 24.4% year to date, as IBM and Red Hat reported Lightwell found and fixed more than 400 previously unknown vulnerabilities.
- Oct 9, 2026Truist Financial started coverage on IBM with a "hold" rating and a $240.00 price target.
- Oct 15, 2026Morgan Stanley raised its IBM price objective to $238.00 from $190.00 with an "equal weight" rating; IBM traded up $4.94 to $232.82.
- Oct 16, 2026IBM shares traded at US$232.67, down 20.2% year to date, and closed at $232.14, down $1.98 (-0.85%).
- Oct 19, 2026Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and $250 price target ahead of the October 21 Q3 report; IBM closed at 236.39, up 4.25 (+1.83%), about 21% lower in 2026 and 29% below its June 2 record.
- Oct 20, 2026IBM shares rose 2.5%, trading as high as $242.53 and last at $242.2070, on 5,737,171 shares, 23% below the average session volume.
- Oct 21, 2026IBM's third-quarter earnings report is scheduled.
Who’s saying what
- Bulls
- Evercore ISI reiterated Outperform and a $250 price target, expecting IBM to hold its 4% to 5% constant currency revenue growth outlook and roughly $1 billion year-over-year free cash flow growth target for 2026, with Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion and EPS of $2.86.
- Caution
- The Motley Fool says a quarter with no organic software growth is hard to shrug off, and software growth is the number to watch.
- Analysts
- MarketBeat lists IBM's software business as the main bullish argument while noting investors remain concerned about execution.
- Official
- CFO James Kavanaugh blamed deal timing for the Q2 shortfall, and CEO Arvind Krishna said around a third of the delayed deals closed in the first three weeks of the third quarter.
Still unverified
Options markets imply traders expect a 7-16% move in IBM stock after earnings, and prediction-market odds are being watched for clues on whether IBM will beat expectations.