Senate race polls
The gist
New Texas polls show Democrat Talarico leading Republican Paxton by about 2-4 points.
The seat has stayed Republican since 1988, so turnout will decide it.
How it unfolded
- Sep 18, 2026 -28, 2026A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of 850 likely Texas voters found Talarico and Paxton tied at 45% each, with 7% undecided.
- Oct 8, 2026The UMass Lowell/YouGov poll was released, showing the Texas U.S. Senate race tied.
- Oct 8, 2026 -11, 2026A Marist Poll survey of 1,196 registered Texas voters put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters.