Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate polls, reports $64M quarter
The gist
Texas state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in three new Senate polls and says he raised a record $64 million in the third quarter.
The money gap and shrinking poll lead set up a turnout fight before early voting opens Monday.
How it unfolded
- Oct 13, 2026A ReconMR poll of 617 Texas likely voters (margin of error 4.4 points) shows Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 44%, down from a six-point lead last month.
- Oct 14, 2026Three polls released Tuesday and Wednesday show Talarico ahead: Texas Politics Project 50%-47%, ReconMR/Siena 48%-44% and Marist 47%-45%. An ActiVote poll fielded Sept 30-Oct 14 put him ahead 51.9% to 48.1%.
- Oct 14, 2026CNN hosted a town hall with Talarico on Wednesday night; Paxton was invited but declined to respond.