GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini says polls overstate Democrats' Senate chances
The gist
Echelon Insights' Patrick Ruffini said polls are overstating Democrats' odds of flipping deep-red Senate seats.
His read matters because Republicans are counting on another polling miss in the midterms.
How it unfolded
- Oct 15, 2026POLITICO reported that Republicans nervous about the midterms were increasingly clinging to the possibility that polling will be wrong, citing 2022 and Trump's 2024 and 2016 polling outperformance.
- Oct 16, 2026Ruffini published newsletter No. 420, 'The election indicator that beats them all,' noting Gallup gives Democrats an 11-point lead on which party can best handle the most important problem.
- Oct 19, 2026POLITICO published an interview in which Ruffini said polling is overstating Democrats' chances of flipping Senate races in historically deep-red territory.