US tennis player Mary Stoiana wins two Osaka qualifiers to reach Japan Open main draw
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The gist
American tennis player Mary Stoiana beat Rinko Matsuda and Sayaka Ishii to qualify for the Japan Open main draw in Osaka.
She is ranked a career-high No. 114 and now faces higher-ranked tour regulars.
Background
Mary Stoiana is a 23-year-old American tennis player, right-handed and ranked No. 114, a career high, with a 44-26 record in 2026 and 20-15 on hard courts; her best result this year was a semifinal at the W35 Boca Raton. She entered the Kinoshita Group Japan Open, a WTA 250 tournament at the Utsubo Tennis Center in Osaka, through qualifying and won two matches to reach the main draw. The card is trending because she is a qualifier moving deeper into a tour-level draw while at a career-high ranking.
How it unfolded
- Oct 17, 2026Stoiana beat Rinko Matsuda 6-3 7-6(1) in the first qualifying round in Osaka, scoring 69 points to Matsuda's 55 with 26 winners.
- Oct 18, 2026Stoiana beat Sayaka Ishii 6-4 7-5 in the qualifying final, their first career meeting, after reaching a new career-high in the live rankings.
- Oct 20, 2026Stoiana was listed as a -189 favorite against Moyuka Uchijima (+145) for a hard-court match at the Utsubo Tennis Center.
- Oct 21, 2026One listing had the Stoiana-Uchijima match scheduled for Wednesday, October 21; another had it on October 22.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Tennis.com projected Stoiana as an 83% favorite over Ishii and a 62% favorite over Uchijima.
- Bulls
- Bleacher Nation/Data Skrive gave Stoiana a 65.4% implied win chance against Uchijima and tournament odds of +1400.
- Caution
- The same Bleacher Nation listing gave Uchijima a 40.8% implied chance and tournament odds of +2800, framing the match as closer than a clear mismatch.
Still unverified
Sources disagree on the round of the Oliynykova-Stoiana match: Sky Sports calls it the first round, while Tennis Majors calls it the third round. Sources also disagree on the date and round of Stoiana vs Uchijima: Bleacher Nation lists a Round of 16 match on Wednesday, October 21, while Tennis.com lists Round 2 on October 22 and 365Scores lists 22/10.