US and Israel draw up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after midterms
Archived — this story has rotated out of today’s deck. It is kept here in full.
The gist
The New York Times reported the US and Israeli militaries have specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections.
The plans test Trump's repeated vetoes of major combat and Tehran's insistence on its enrichment right.
Background
The US and Israel launched a war on Iran in February 2026, citing the imminent threat of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons; first-day strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had banned nuclear weapons development in a fatwa (a religious ruling). Nearly eight months of conflict have driven up energy prices and inflation worldwide and strained the Pentagon's supply of missile interceptors. With ceasefire talks stalled over Iran's nuclear programme, reports say Washington and Jerusalem have drawn up plans for one more big round of attacks that some officials believe could push Iran's economy over the brink and force concessions.
How it unfolded
- Feb 28, 2026The Trump administration invoked the imminent threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons to launch the war; first-day US-Israel strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- Feb-Apr 2026Intense US-Israeli strikes drove up energy prices and inflation worldwide, eroded Middle East security and strained the Pentagon's missile interceptor supply.
- Jun 18, 2026A memorandum of understanding was signed in Islamabad, the only concluded negotiation initiative, but it collapsed within days.
- Oct 18, 2026Trump warned the US could "soon finish the job" against Iran unless Tehran changed course, and gave Netanyahu his "complete and total endorsement" ahead of Israel's October 27 election.
- Oct 21, 2026The New York Times reported the US and Israeli militaries have specific plans for renewed strikes after the American midterm elections; Iran's nuclear programme again emerged as a top obstacle to a ceasefire.
- Oct 22, 2026Reports said the plans focus on a short, intensive operation of about three days targeting nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone capabilities; Hegseth met Netanyahu in Israel and the two militaries practiced strike maneuvers over Iraq.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- Trump says Iran has been "systematically destroyed, both militarily and financially" and that unless it changes course the US will "soon finish the job," while demanding "zero uranium enrichment."
- Party
- Netanyahu reiterated his pledge to topple the Iranian government, which he says is key to preventing it from developing nuclear weapons.
- Official
- Tehran insists uranium enrichment is a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and warns any fresh attack could trigger a wider confrontation, including retaliation against energy facilities and commercial shipping.
- Analysts
- Experts say Israel's October 27 election could complicate the plans, since a defeated Netanyahu would become a caretaker prime minister and find it difficult to launch a war.
Still unverified
It is far from certain Trump will approve fresh strikes; he has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat this year, including this month when the militaries were nearly ready to attack, and promised not to strike before the vote. Tehran has released no technical details on the weapon it calls the "father of all bombs," whose exact nature has not been independently assessed. Whether military pressure will force Tehran to make concessions remains uncertain, and American officials have often predicted Iran's collapse while other Western officials say its government has withstood economic pressure.