Storms Vance and Josephine form
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The gist
Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific and Subtropical Storm Josephine in the Atlantic on October 21.
Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane while staying offshore of Mexico.
Background
Vance is the 22nd named storm of the Pacific hurricane season and Josephine the 10th of the Atlantic season, both reported by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Vance formed well off Mexico's southwestern coast, while Josephine formed in the Atlantic and pushed north from the U.S. Northeast coast. Forecasters are tracking Vance after Polo, Simon, Rachel and Trudy, and it follows a similar track as Trudy did earlier in October.
How it unfolded
- Oct 21, 2026Tropical Storm Vance formed in the East Pacific, first as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds before reaching 40 mph by the afternoon.
- Oct 21, 2026Subtropical Storm Josephine formed in the Atlantic around the same time; WCAX-TV reported that evening that both storms posed little threat to land.
- Oct 21, 2026Late Wednesday, Vance was about 505 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, with 45 mph winds, forecast to become a hurricane Thursday and a major hurricane Saturday.
- Oct 22, 2026Josephine pushed north from the U.S. Northeast coast with 65 mph winds, centered about 265 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts; the National Weather Service posted a gale warning for parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- The National Hurricane Center said Josephine was forecast to continue moving away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
- Expert
- AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said residents and businesses across western Mexico should closely monitor Vance, since the exact track will determine whether it brings impacts there or remains offshore.
- Analysts
- AccuWeather forecast that Vance will quickly ramp up to a hurricane and is likely to become a major Category 3 storm.
- Caution
- The National Weather Service warned of winds above 39 mph through midmorning Friday and advised small watercraft of hazardous conditions south to North Carolina's Outer Banks.
Still unverified
Models vary on how intense Vance will be, though some suggest it could reach Category 3 strength; the exact track will determine whether it impacts western Mexico or stays offshore, and some leftover tropical moisture could even move into Texas and Oklahoma next week.