Lockheed Martin shares down over 20% from March peak ahead of earnings
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The gist
Lockheed Martin reports earnings before the open, with shares at $547.97, down over 20% from March's high.
Investors weigh record backlog and analyst upgrades against midterm and competition risks.
Background
Lockheed Martin is a US defense contractor whose stock is the subject of the coverage. Its shares hit an all-time high in March 2026 and have since slid more than 20%, with Invezz flagging a head-and-shoulders pattern (a chart formation often read as a sign of a possible reversal) and citing concerns about US politics and competition. The company reported a record backlog of $230.416 billion after $65 billion in new orders in the second quarter and raised guidance, and it trades at a forward P/E of 16 versus more than 19 for the average S&P 500 stock, with a 2.6% dividend yield and 24 consecutive years of dividend increases.
How it unfolded
- Mar 2026Lockheed Martin shares hit an all-time high of $692, peaking at $683 in March per Invezz.
- Jul 23, 2026At the most recent earnings release, the implied move was 4.0% while the actual price change reached 10.5%.
- Sep 8, 2026UBS analyst Gavin Parsons upgraded Lockheed Martin to buy with a $674 price target, predicting 26% upside.
- Oct 16, 2026LMT closed up 3.65% on manufacturing expansion announcements and supply chain partnerships, then gained another 2.5% through 1:10 p.m. ET, its third straight day of gains, after UBS reiterated its view.
- Oct 20, 2026LMT traded at $548, down from the March peak, slowly forming a head-and-shoulders pattern.
- Oct 21, 2026Shares stood at $547.97, down over 20% from the all-time high.
- Oct 22, 2026Earnings are due before the market opens; options data compiled by Bloomberg imply a 3.5% move. Wall Street expects earnings of $7.43 per share on revenue of $20.49 billion, and shares rose 0.4% to $553.92 in after-hours trading.
Who’s saying what
- Bulls
- UBS analyst Gavin Parsons upgraded the stock to buy with a $674 target, predicting missile sales could rise 20% a year through 2030 and that the Missiles and Fire Control division alone would grow 150% in size over five years.
- Analysts
- Equity analysts said expanding global demand for precision-strike technology and missile defense systems provides a multi-year growth runway through the end of the decade.
- Caution
- Invezz flagged a head-and-shoulders pattern and cited two key threats: a possible Democratic sweep in the midterms affecting defense spending, and competition from Anduril's cheaper interceptor work.
Still unverified
Most polls show Democrats will win the House of Representatives and odds of the party flipping the Senate have continued rising on Polymarket and Kalshi; most recent polls have placed President Donald Trump's approval rating at less than 35%; last year there were reports of the U.S. government considering taking a stake in the business.