James Talarico's Texas Senate campaign
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The gist
Polls show Democrat James Talarico at 51% to Republican Ken Paxton's 49% ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm.
No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988.
Background
James Talarico is a Democratic state representative since 2018, a former public middle school teacher and the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas. Ken Paxton is the Republican Texas Attorney General since 2015 and the Republican Senate nominee, backed by an endorsement from Trump. The seat is held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly 40 years, and the contest has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential races in U.S. history, with ad spending reaching $442 million by early October.
How it unfolded
- Mar 3, 2026Texans voted in Democratic and Republican primaries ahead of November's midterm elections; Talarico addressed supporters on election night in Austin.
- Aug 2026Talarico has maintained a lead since August, sometimes only a point and as high as six points over the past two months.
- Oct 18, 2026A CBS News poll showed Talarico with 51% support and Paxton with 49%; a University of Houston Hobby School poll showed Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% unsure.
- Oct 18, 2026Talarico launched his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour in Plano, while Paxton continued an 18-day bus tour.
- Oct 19, 2026Early voting began across Texas; Paxton brought out RFK Jr. and Talarico had the cast of "Friday Night Lights" as they closed out a day of campaigning in the Fort Worth area.
- Oct 20, 2026Neil Bush posted on Facebook that he had cast his ballot for Talarico as early voting began.
- Oct 21, 2026A Fox News poll found Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters; Talarico spoke at the UH Hilton on the University of Houston campus.
- Oct 23, 2026Talarico cast his ballot near his Austin home with his girlfriend and parents; Paxton campaigned in Laredo and then San Antonio.
- Nov 3, 2026Midterm elections are set for Nov. 3.
Who’s saying what
- Talarico
- Talarico says Paxton was impeached by his own party for using public office to enrich himself and his donors, and represents a broken, corrupt system that serves himself rather than Texans.
- Paxton
- Paxton calls Talarico "the most radical Democrat in Texas history," a democratic socialist who voted to tax income, tips, overtime and Social Security, and says California already has two senators.
- Analysts
- Rice University's Mark Jones says Talarico's late-campaign performance is the strongest from a Texas Democrat in decades, noting Beto O'Rourke trailed in virtually every poll at this point in 2018.
- Analysts
- KHOU 11 political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus says momentum is critical and every day counts, but most people have already decided who they are going for.
- Support
- Businessman Neil Bush says his vote for Talarico was motivated by deep concern about Paxton's record and admiration for Talarico's character and principles.
Still unverified
Barbara Bush has reportedly donated $2,500 to a political action committee that supports Talarico; the BBC has contacted her for comment. Critics may cast the Bush family's backing as political sour grapes because Paxton beat a primary challenge from Neil Bush's nephew.