Mary Peltola poised to flip Alaska seat
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The gist
Former congresswoman Mary Peltola leads Alaska's Senate primary with 49.5% and a seven-point poll edge over incumbent Dan Sullivan.
A Democratic flip in right-leaning Alaska would narrow the party's path to a Senate majority.
Background
Mary Peltola is an Alaska Democrat, former commercial fisherman and single-term House member who served as Alaska's at-large congresswoman from 2022 until her time in Congress ended in January 2025. Dan Sullivan is the Republican incumbent U.S. senator from Alaska seeking reelection. Peltola's focus on Alaska's cost-of-living challenges has powered her surge, and NBC News rates the race a toss-up; Democrats need to defend all their seats and flip four to gain a Senate majority, and have targeted Alaska as one of five potential pickup opportunities.
How it unfolded
- Aug 2022Peltola began serving as Alaska's at-large congresswoman.
- 2023Peltola's mother and her husband, who was killed in a plane crash, died within a few months of each other.
- 2024Peltola lost her at-large House seat; Donald Trump carried Alaska by double digits.
- Jan 2025Peltola's time in Congress ended.
- Aug 2026Peltola had a strong primary performance, leading with 49.5% of the vote ahead of Sullivan's 41.4%.
- Sep 23, 2026The New York Times published a report on former Peltola staffers' allegations.
- Oct 3, 2026A New York Times/Siena University poll placed Peltola in a seven-point lead.
- Oct 10, 2026Peltola wrote an op-ed saying she would stand up to anyone, including people in her own party.
- Oct 15, 2026Alaska's "Debate for the State" took place; Sullivan repeatedly pointed to the New York Times piece and the candidates accused each other of lying.
- Oct 16, 2026Alaska Beacon reported that the final televised debate in Anchorage devolved into mudslinging.
- Nov 3, 2026The general election is scheduled.
Who’s saying what
- Support
- Schumer and Gillibrand said in a joint statement that Peltola is going to win the race and give Alaskans the voice they deserve in the U.S. Senate.
- Campaign
- Peltola campaign spokesperson Harry Child said Sullivan has tripled his wealth in the Senate and voted fourteen times for the war in Iran, while Peltola has a plan to take on the rigged system in DC, lower costs and put Alaska first.
- Caution
- Democratic strategist John-Henry Heckendorn said it has always been long odds and Peltola would have to do about twice as well as Democratic Senate challengers in the past four cycles to win.
- Party
- Kevin Greene of Americans for Prosperity-Alaska said Trump won by 13 points two years ago, so it is not the position they would love to be in, but they are doing what they do to help Sullivan across the finish line.
- Official
- Sullivan said Peltola sought a lobbying paycheck after her House time ended and told her she is walking through the revolving door so much she must be getting dizzy.
Still unverified
Former aides allege angry, profane outbursts, one instance of shoving an aide, and use of slurs against LGBTQ+ people and people with disabilities; Peltola calls them fabrications or mass exaggerations and her campaign denies the alleged pattern. Sullivan claimed several times that Peltola opposed a pay raise for military officials; Peltola disputed his statements as untrue.