US, Israel plan Iran strikes
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The gist
The New York Times reported the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms.
The White House says no attack before the vote.
Background
The US and Israel launched a war on Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, killing its supreme leader and senior Iranian officials; the fighting drove up energy prices and inflation worldwide and strained the Pentagon's supply of missile interceptors. A June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, brokered with Pakistani and Qatari mediation, has since stalled over issues including navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked since the war began. The threat of renewed strikes is being used as leverage in talks on Iran's nuclear program and control of the waterway, and officials say another major round could crater Iran's economy and force concessions. The plans surfaced after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a bombing campaign in early October that he shelved when President Donald Trump rejected restarting hostilities before the midterms.
How it unfolded
- Feb 28, 2026The US and Israel launched a war on Iran, killing its supreme leader and several senior Iranian officials.
- Feb–Apr 2026Intense US-Israeli strikes pushed up energy prices and inflation worldwide and severely strained the Pentagon's supply of missile interceptors.
- Jun 2026A US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed after Pakistani and Qatari mediation later stalled amid disagreements, including over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Early Oct 2026Netanyahu ordered his military to plan a bombing campaign against Iran but did not carry it out after Trump rejected restarting hostilities before the midterms, per the Financial Times.
- Mid-Oct 2026Israel had initially planned to strike about two weeks before Israeli elections on Oct. 27, but Trump objected.
- Oct 21, 2026The New York Times reported the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections.
- Oct 22, 2026The White House said the US will not resume attacks on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
- Nov 3, 2026US midterm elections are held, after which strikes are expected.
Who’s saying what
- Official
- White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the United States will not attack Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections, while an administration official said Trump keeps all options on the table to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
- Analysts
- Officials say another major round of strikes could crater Iran's economy and force Tehran into diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.
- Caution
- Reports note it is far from certain Trump will approve fresh strikes, as he has repeatedly vetoed a return to major combat, and there are reasons to be skeptical a renewed war would be more successful than the first phase.
- Party
- An Israeli source said regime change in Iran, not a negotiated deal, is the Israeli government's top goal, and that 'hunting season is open as soon as the elections end.'
- Support
- Israeli sources said the decision to resume joint strikes is 'only for Trump to decide,' and one did not rule out Israel striking unilaterally but said Israel would still require US consent.
Still unverified
It is far from certain Trump will approve fresh strikes; he has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat, including this month when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack. A White House official said the administration does not comment on 'sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.'