Ohio governor race shifts to Lean D after Ramaswamy ad backlash
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The gist
Cook Political Report moved Ohio's governor race from toss-up to Lean Democrat after Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad.
The rating shift signals the ad may be hurting Republicans beyond Ramaswamy.
Background
Vivek Ramaswamy is the Republican candidate for Ohio governor; Amy Acton, the Democratic nominee, is a former Ohio health director. The ad features Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her a liar and urging Ohioans not to vote for her. Forecasters had initially given Ramaswamy the upper hand after years of Democratic losses in Ohio, then moved the race to a toss-up before this week's shift. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor in 20 years.
How it unfolded
- Oct 22, 2026Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Ohio governor's race from toss-up to leans Democratic, citing what it called an explosive and desperate attack ad.
- Oct 23, 2026Cook Political Report moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. A Cook poll conducted before the ad's release found Acton leading Ramaswamy by five points, and Decision Desk HQ gave Acton a 62 percent chance of victory.
- Oct 23, 2026Ramaswamy said at campaign stops that the ad had nothing to do with abuse and that the media was covering up for Acton. His campaign confirmed it will spend $4 million to air the ad.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Cook Political Report said the decision to air a deeply personal attack ad confirmed the race is slipping away from Ramaswamy and may cause collateral damage for fellow Republicans.
- Analysts
- Cook's Jessica Taylor said no GOP source she spoke to thought the ad was a good idea, and that it is not the kind of ad you run if you are winning.
- Analysts
- Sabato's editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman said Democrats need a lot to go right to win in Ohio, but a lot appears to be going right.
- Support
- President Donald Trump called it a very powerful ad and encouraged Ramaswamy to keep it on air; Vice President JD Vance defended the ad and told Republicans to stop complaining about it.
- Caution
- Ohio Republican Governor Mike DeWine condemned the ad; Senator Jon Husted and Secretary of State Frank LaRose said they would not have run it; former attorney general Dave Yost said there's a better way to lead.
- Party
- Acton called the ad exploitative and said it was sad to see Ramaswamy exploit her mother for political gain; former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown called it disgusting and urged Husted to condemn it.
Still unverified
Initially it was unclear who was behind the video, and it appeared online without a disclaimer before Ramaswamy's team confirmed it was behind the ad.