No AI payoff seen outside tech sector
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The gist
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered zero financial payoff to US companies outside big tech.
The claim questions whether AI spending pays off beyond the seven largest tech firms.
Background
Torsten Slok is partner and chief economist at Apollo, an investment firm, and writes its Daily Spark note. In a note titled 'No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector,' he compared the Magnificent Seven (the seven technology giants) with the S&P 493 (the broad corporate economy outside those seven firms). The analysis landed as Wall Street retreated from the AI sector and stock and bond trades unraveled, and after the IMF warned of AI bubble risk.
How it unfolded
- Oct 21, 2026Politics Today publishes an analysis arguing the biggest risk to the AI thesis may be a timing mismatch between spending and returns, not technological failure.
- Oct 22, 2026UA.NEWS reports the IMF warned of AI bubble risk and the consequences for the global economy if investments don't pay off.
- Oct 22, 2026Uganda Business News reports a KPMG survey ranking AI a priority in East Africa, with Ugandan firms showing no payoff; 42% of African executives expect returns beyond three years versus 12% globally.
- Oct 24, 2026Slok publishes 'No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector'; Fortune reports he said AI has 'delivered zero financial payoff' to US companies outside the big hyperscalers.
- Oct 24, 2026LavX News republishes the Apollo findings, citing data through October 2026.
Who’s saying what
- Analysts
- Slok says revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but flat for the S&P 493, with no sign AI is boosting productivity growth.
- Caution
- Slok argues the marginal cost of producing compute exceeds the marginal benefit it delivers to users, and that 80% of the top 1% of AI spenders are VC-backed, paying compute bills with venture capital rather than earnings.
- Analysts
- Politics Today's Imdat Doğan argues the biggest risk may be a timing mismatch between spending and returns, since an investment that pays off ten years late can still disappoint shareholders.
- Expert
- LavX News's Tomáš Novák says AI is an exceptional calculator but business runs on judgment, accountability, trust and culture, which AI misses.
Still unverified
Slok said of future AI revenue growth, profits or savings: 'Maybe that will come in the future. Maybe not.' AI companies have also come under scrutiny over financing deals in which they provide money or guarantee debt for other companies that are also top customers, raising doubts about how sustainable their growth is.