NOAA winter outlook favors warm North, wet South as El Niño builds
The gist
NOAA's outlook for Dec. 2026 to Feb. 2027 calls for a warmer North and wetter South.
A strong El Niño tilts odds toward stormier weather, but severity isn't guaranteed.
How it unfolded
- Oct 15, 2026NOAA released its winter outlook for Dec. 2026 to Feb. 2027, favoring warmer-than-average conditions across the northern U.S. and wetter-than-average conditions across the South.
- Oct 19, 2026A strong winter storm was forecast to bring heavy snow and rain to much of Alaska, with a Winter Storm Watch from the Fairbanks Borough to Nenana for 4–8 inches of snow and flood and wind advisories in Southeast Alaska.
- Oct 20, 2026The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning predicting up to 36 inches of snow this week; NOAA's outlook called for wetter-than-normal conditions in Louisiana, about two-thirds of which was in severe drought.