El Niño US winter forecast
The gist
NOAA's winter outlook says a strong-to-very strong El Niño will likely bring a warmer, wetter US winter.
The pattern shifts storm odds south, with nine states possibly seeing more snow.
How it unfolded
- early October 2026El Niño's effects were first felt on the West Coast with the arrival of a Kelvin wave; the band of warm water raised sea levels as it moved north, bringing elevated flood risk and warmer ocean temperatures.
- Oct 8, 2026NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an update keeping an El Niño Advisory, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January–March 2027 at above 83 percent chance; sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific the prior month.
- Oct 15, 2026NOAA released its 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook; National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream southward and eastward over the contiguous U.S.