US core PCE inflation rises to 3.1%, highest since May
The gist
The Commerce Department reported September core PCE prices up 3.1% from a year earlier, above the Fed's 2% target.
Markets now price over an 80% chance of a December rate hike.
How it unfolded
- Sep 30, 2026BEA's August report put the PCE price index 3.4% above a year earlier and core prices up 3.0% over the year.
- Oct 23, 2026Bank of America analysts wrote that last month's inflation pressures were broad, with core goods and core services both accelerating.
- Oct 27, 2026FactSet consensus expected September PCE to rise 0.5% month over month and the annual rate to accelerate to 3.7%.