Polls show Democrats strong in final Senate race days
The gist
New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio days before the election.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate.
How it unfolded
- Oct 21, 2026A Cook Political Report battleground poll showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 44% in the Texas Senate race, while a Fox News poll showed the race tied at 49%.
- Oct 22, 2026An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll found Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, a 2-point lead within the margin of error.
- Oct 29, 2026A Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters put Talarico ahead 49% to 47%. Silver Bulletin gave Democrats a 95.1% chance of winning the House and 77.7% of the Senate; Decision Desk HQ put those at 80% and 60%.