Live forecast for Senate and House
The gist
Forecasters including DDHQ give Democrats a 78% chance of taking the House and 56% for the Senate.
Control of Congress decides whether Trump's agenda faces a Democratic check.
How it unfolded
- Sep 24, 2026270toWin reports that with 40 days to the election, quantitative forecasts are leaning toward larger Democratic gains.
- Oct 1, 2026DDHQ says Democrats have strengthened their position for the House, while Senate control remains firmly up for grabs.
- Oct 12, 2026DDHQ says the environment has trended toward Democrats, who now have just above a 1 in 2 chance of sweeping both chambers.